Are the public shopping as usual?Ī dive in retail sales reveals the impact of the war the psychology of the average shopper. Last year car production was down 67%, excavation machinery down 53% and television receivers down by 36% with no end to the cut in production likely while sanctions of vital components remain in place. Russia’s total goods imports in December 2022 were down by about 20% year on year, while technology imports slumped 30%. They said private consumption fell 4% and not the 1.8% in the official numbers, though a definitive assessment stripping out all aspects of military spending was impossible.Įven official measures give a clue to the damage caused to the non-military economy. The pair concluded that Russia’s recession last year was broader and deeper than the official figures showed once the focus is switched to non-military activity. It draws on 15 separate sources including Google searches, airline ticket purchases and house price data. What about other parts of the economy?Ī CEPR study by the economists Adrian Schmith of the European Central Bank and Hanna Sakhno of the University of Groningen has gone beyond consumer spending to produce a “domestic demand tracker” to measure private sector activity. Spending in shops has fallen 10%, he said, showing that the real economy has suffered a dramatic contraction. The economist Mikhail Mamonov, a sanctions expert based at Princeton and a member of the CEPR, warns against using GDP as a guide to any country directly involved in a war, and especially Russia where the official figures are likely to be massaged. However, this assessment includes military spending – which has soared since the invasion began, particularly after the introduction of conscription for 120,000 civilians last year.
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